One of the major challenges facing humanity is to ensure an adequate water supply, especially under conditions of ongoing climate change. Land-use and land cover changes (LUCC) in watersheds are associated with important indirect effects of atmospheric and hydrological phenomena, and also affect the availability and quality of water resources. Consequently, water management systems should take into account the composite effects of climate change (particularly precipitation), and the dynamics of land-use change to ensure the quantity and quality of water needed for both human consumption and for ecosystem protection. The biophysical and social characteristics of watersheds interact in complex ways to influence water provisioning. For example, several studies have demonstrated a negative relationship between water quality and the extent of impervious cover across watersheds, the proportion of remaining forest cover, and the presence of agricultural and industrial activities. Multiple regions of the Brazilian state of São Paulo have experienced an increase in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, which regional climate models predict will increase with ongoing climate change. Understanding and quantifying the relative importance of extreme precipitation events and LUCC in the quantity and quality of water in water bodies across São Paulo state is a critical step to ensure the supply of water of over 41.2 million inhabitants. Despite the importance of ensuring stable water supplies, the combined effects of changes in land use with the changing climatic conditions remain poorly studied.
The overall objective of this sub-project is to examine the importance of extreme precipitation events and the dynamics of land use on freshwater quantity and quality in São Paulo state. To do this, we will integrate theoretical and analytical tools from the natural, social and atmospheric sciences including detailed modeling analyses of land-use, hydrological and climatological variables. Specifically we will:
1) Quantify the influence of climate variability, especially of extreme precipitation events, and changes in the composition of watershed-scale land-uses on the quality and quantity of water resources.
2) Build scenarios of the potential impacts of climate change and changes in land-use and land cover on the provision of water resources.
The overall objective of this sub-project is to examine the importance of extreme precipitation events and the dynamics of land use on freshwater quantity and quality in São Paulo state. To do this, we will integrate theoretical and analytical tools from the natural, social and atmospheric sciences including detailed modeling analyses of land-use, hydrological and climatological variables. Specifically we will:
1) Quantify the influence of climate variability, especially of extreme precipitation events, and changes in the composition of watershed-scale land-uses on the quality and quantity of water resources.
2) Build scenarios of the potential impacts of climate change and changes in land-use and land cover on the provision of water resources.
Leandro Tambosi
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Jean Paul Metzger
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María Uriarte
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