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--- 2019:groups:g6:start [2018/12/26 19:25] – prado
+++ 2019:groups:g6:start [2024/01/09 18:45] (current) – external edit 127.0.0.1
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 **Group 6**
-====== Transmission pathways of plague ======
+<html><font size=6 face="Arial">The multiple paths to plague outbreaks</font></html>
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 Black Death was part of a pandemic that killed up to a half of
-Eurasian population in the 12th century. This series of epidemics was
+Eurasian population in the 14th century. This series of epidemics was
-attributed to bulbonic plague, as well as the Justinian Pandemics and
+attributed to bubonic plague, as well as the Justinian Pandemics and
 the recurrent plague epidemics that burst over Europe until the 17th
 century.
@@ Line 21: / Line 22: @@
 Many rodents are reservoirs of the
-plague bacillus //Yersinia pestis//, which is transmitted by fleas.
+bacteria that causes plague (//Yersinia pestis//).
-Therefore, urban outbreaks have been explained by the transmission of the
+Urban outbreaks have been explained by the transmission of the
 disease from infected rats to humans through flea bites.
 Nevertheless, this epidemiological model does not match some
 key features of the Black Death and other pandemics attributed to
-bulbonic plague. For instance, the ancient epidemics spread over large
+bubonic plague. For instance, many ancient epidemics spread over large
 areas faster but had larger recurrence times than
 the plagues of the 19-20th centuries,
@@ Line 38: / Line 39: @@
 outbreaks.
-[[https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0050003| {{  :2019:groups:g6:stenseth_fig2.png?nolink&400 }} ]]
+{{  :2019:groups:g6:stenseth_fig2.png  | Stenseth et al. PLOS Medicine 2008  }}
 For instance, there was a higher prevalence of blood-sucking
-bugs in humans (( the house flea and body, head and pubic lice))
+bugs in humans ((the [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_flea|house flea]],
+and [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_louse|body]], [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_louse|head]], and [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crab_louse|pubic]] lice))
 at the time of the Black Death than in recent times.
 The human-to-human transmission by way
 of these ectoparasites has been advanced as a route that could speed up
-the spread of plague. On the other hand, Appleby (1980) claimed that
+the spread of plague (Drancourt et al. 2006).
+On the other hand, Appleby (1980) claimed that
 the way that plague spread over London during the 1665 epidemic is
 better explained by the rat-flea-human pathway.
 According to this author, acquired immunity by rats
 explains why plague suddenly disappeared from England since then.
+===== Assigment =====
+Propose simple but realistic mathematical model(s) to describe the dynamics of plague epidemics. The model(s) should address at least one issue of the classic rat-flea-human model, taking into account alternative transmission pathways. Any other aspect that can help to address the issues is also welcome, such as acquired immunity (by humans or rats). Key parameters of your model should be well-grounded in the available knowledge about plague transmission and ecology of vectors and reservoirs.
+===== Suggested questions =====
+  * Does your model predict single or recurrent epidemics? Why?
+  * Can the alternative pathway(s) you modeled explain (some of) the distinct patterns between recent and ancient plagues?
+===== References =====
+  * Appleby, A. B. (1980). The disappearance of plague: a continuing puzzle. The Economic History Review, 33(2), 161-173.
+  * Drancourt, M., Houhamdi, L., & Raoult, D. (2006). Yersinia pestis as a telluric, human ectoparasite-borne organism. The Lancet infectious diseases, 6(4), 234-241.
+  * Stenseth, N. C., Atshabar, B. B., Begon, M., Belmain, S. R., Bertherat, E., Carniel, E., ... & Rahalison, L. (2008). Plague: past, present, and future. PLoS medicine, 5(1), e3.