Video

Handouts

Lewontin, RC. 1969. The meaning of stability. Brookhaven Symp Biol 22:13–23.

Holling C.S. 1973. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst. 4: 1-23.

May, R.M. 1977. Thresholds and breakpoints in ecosystems with a multiplicity of stable states. Nature 269: 471-477.

Scheffer, M. 2009. Critical Transitions in Nature and Society. Princeton Univ. Press.

Grimm, V. & Wissel, C. 1997. Babel, or the ecological stability discussions: an inventory and analysis of terminology and a guide for avoiding confusion. Oecologia 109: 323–334.

Scheffer, M., Bascompte, J., Brock, W. A., Brovkin, V., Carpenter, S. R., Dakos, V., … & Sugihara, G. (2009). Early-warning signals for critical transitions. Nature, 461(7260), 53-59.

Hastings, A., Abbott, K.C., Cuddington, K., Francis, T., Gellner, G., Lai, Y.C., Morozov, A., Petrovskii, S., Scranton, K. and Zeeman, M.L., 2018. Transient phenomena in ecology. Science, 361(6406): eaat6412.

M. Scheffer and S.R. Carpenter: Catastrophic regime shifts in ecosystems: linking theory and observation. http://eaton.math.rpi.edu/csums/papers/Ecostability/scheffercatastrophe.pdf

C. A. Klausmeier: Regular and Irregular Patterns in Semiarid Vegetation. http://preston.kbs.msu.edu/reprints/files/klausmeier%201999.pdf

J.A. Sherratt: An Analysis of Vegetation Stripe Formation in Semi-Arid Landscapes. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00285-005-0319-5

S.R. Carpenter et alli: Early Warnings of Regime Shifts: A Whole-Ecosystem Experiment. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6033/1079.full.html OR http://faculty.virginia.edu/pace/documents/Publications/Carpeneter%20et%20al.%20Squeal_ScienceExpress_2011.pdf

Schröder, A. et al. 2005. Direct experimental evidence for alternative stable states: a review. Oikos 110: 3-19.

Dai, L., Vorselen, D., Korolev, K. S., & Gore, J. (2012). Generic indicators for loss of resilience before a tipping point leading to population collapse. Science, 336(6085), 1175-1177.

Rietkerk, M., Dekker, S. C., de Ruiter, P. C., & van de Koppel, J. (2004). Self-organized patchiness and catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Science, 305(5692), 1926-1929.

van de Leemput, I. A., van Nes, E. H., & Scheffer, M. (2015). Resilience of alternative states in spatially extended ecosystems. PloS one, 10(2), e0116859.

Coutinho, R. M., Kraenkel, R. A., & Prado, P. I. (2015). Catastrophic regime shift in water reservoirs and São Paulo water supply crisis. PloS one, 10(9), e0138278.

Early warnings toolbox

SPARCS The Synergy Program for Analysing Resilience and Critical transitions.

Regime shifts database : “The Regime Shifts DataBase provides examples of different types of regime shifts that have been documented in social-ecological systems. The database focuses specifically on regime shifts that have large impacts on ecosystem services, and therefore on human well-being.”