I am a biologist, PhD in Ecology and teacher at the Ecology Department from the Instituto de Biociências of Universidade de São Paulo.

Before that I was an associate researcher at Environmental Research Center of Unicamp and associate teacher at Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo.

My intellectual project is to give more theoretical rigor to Community Ecology. My strategy is to deduce ecological patterns from first principles, and then subjecting them to rigorous empirical and logical tests.

It is also my goal to train researchers who combine deep critical thinking with a solid background in ecology and in the logic of the scientific method.

To evaluate the sensitivity of the results and conclusions of selected case studies to the inclusion of imperfect detection.

The advancement and application of ecological theory depends on unbiased and precise estimates of occurrence, size and vital rates of populations in ecological systems. There is a growing concern that such estimates are strongly affected by observation bias; the most obvious case are false absences. A formalism of hierarchical statistical models to tackle the problem is now available. Colletively known as hierarchical models with imperfect detection, such statistical methods could be applied much more widely than they currently are. Nevertheless, this new approach involves complex statistical procedures and larger sampling efforts. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate the effective gains of the models with imperfect detection in different types of ecological research.

Because I seek first principles, one of my research interests is perhaps the only general law in Community Ecology: the predominance of rare species.

My main research project is to develop an analytical protocol to describe this pattern. The research was funded by FAPESP and CNPq, and you can find more information here.

Many of my students also do their research on this topic, see the page of research projects.

<bibtex> @ARTICLE{Prado2009,

author = {Prado, P I},
title = {Distribuições de Abundâncias de Espécies: avanços analíticos para entender um padrão básico em ecologia},
journal = {Ciência e Ambiente},
year = {2009},
volume = {39},
pages = {121 -- 136},
file={:prado:prado2009_ca.pdf}

}

@Manual{,

  title = {{sads}: Maximum Likelihood Models for Species Abundance Distributions},
  author = {Paulo I. Prado and Murilo Dantas Miranda and André Chalom},
  year = {2014},
  note = {R package version 0.2},
  url = {http://piklprado.github.io/sads/},
}

@article{de2015modeling,

title={Modeling Tree Diameter Distributions in Natural Forests: An Evaluation of 10 Statistical Models},
author={de Lima, Renato Augusto Ferreira and Batista, Jo{\~a}o Lu{\'\i}s Ferreira and Prado, Paulo In{\'a}cio},
journal={Forest Science},
volume={61},
number={2},
pages={320--327},
year={2015},
publisher={Society of American Foresters}

}

</bibtex>

One of the basic approaches of community ecology is to identify patterns and regularities to infer their underlying structuring processes. I was trained in this tradition of observational research, and I specialized in statistical analysis to detect ecological patterns. I keep researching and advising on this subject, see the page of ongoing projects.

More recently, I also started some experimental approaches, like manipulative research in the field, and “virtual experiments” with computer simulations.

<bibtex> @ARTICLE{almeida2004,

author = {Almeida, A.M. and Prado, P.I. and Lewinsohn, T.M.},
title = {Geographical distribution of Eupatorieae (Asteraceae) in South-eastern
and South Brazilian mountain ranges},
journal = {Plant ecology},
year = {2004},
volume = {174},
pages = {163--181},
number = {1},
publisher = {Springer},
file ={:prado:almeida2004.pdf}

} @ARTICLE{piza2004,

author = {Piza, F.F. and Prado, P.I. and Manfio, G.P.},
title = {Investigation of bacterial diversity in Brazilian tropical estuarine
sediments reveals high actinobacterial diversity},
journal = {Antonie Van Leeuwenhoek},
year = {2004},
volume = {86},
pages = {317--328},
number = {4},
publisher = {Springer},
file={:prado:piza2004.pdf}

} @ARTICLE{lewinsohn2005b,

author = {Lewinsohn, T.M. and Prado, P.I.},
title = {How many species are there in Brazil?},
journal = {Conservation Biology},
year = {2005},
volume = {19},
pages = {619--624},
number = {3},
publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
file={:prado:lewinsohn2005.pdf}

}

@ARTICLE{Pardini2010,

author = {Pardini, Renata AND Bueno, Adriana de Arruda AND Gardner, Toby A.
AND Prado, Paulo Inácio AND Metzger, Jean Paul},
title = {Beyond the Fragmentation Threshold Hypothesis: Regime Shifts in Biodiversity
Across Fragmented Landscapes},
journal = {PLoS ONE},
year = {2010},
volume = {5},
pages = {e13666},
number = {10},
month = {10},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0013666},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0013666}

}

@article{martensen2012associations,

title={Associations of forest cover, fragment area, and connectivity with neotropical understory bird species richness and abundance},
author={Martensen, Alexandre Camargo and Ribeiro, Milton Cezar and Banks-Leite, Cristina and Prado, Paulo Inacio and Metzger, Jean Paul},
journal={Conservation Biology},
volume={26},
number={6},
pages={1100--1111},
year={2012},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}

}

@article{castanho2015does,

title={Does extreme environmental severity promote plant facilitation? An experimental field test in a subtropical coastal dune.},
author={Castanho, CT and Oliveira, AA and Prado, PI},
journal={Oecologia},
url = {http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00442-015-3285-7},
year={2015}

}

</bibtex>

I still take part in the research group I graduated, led by Dr. Thomas Lewinsohn, at Unicamp.

I work in collaboration with them and other colleagues in the search for patterns in ecological networks, with emphasis on antagonistic systems of herbivorous insects and their host plants.

<bibtex> @ARTICLE{prado1999,

author = {Prado, P.I.K.L. and Vieira, E.M.},
title = {The interplay between plant traits and herbivore attack: a study
of a stem galling midge in the neotropics},
journal = {Ecological entomology},
year = {1999},
volume = {24},
pages = {80--88},
number = {1},
publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
file={:prado:prado_vieira1999.pdf}

} @ARTICLE{Prado2002,

author = {P.I. Prado and T.M. Lewinsohn and A.M. Almeida and A.L. Norrbom and B.D. Buys and A.C.C. Macedo and M.B. Lopes},
title = {The Fauna of Tephritidae (Diptera) from Capitula of Asteraceae in Brazil},
journal = {Proceedings of Washington Entomological Society},
year = {2002},
volume = {104},
pages = {1007-1028},
number = {4}

} @ARTICLE{prado2004,

author = {Prado, P.I. and Lewinsohn, T.M.},
title = {Compartments in insect-plant associations and their consequences
for community structure},
journal = {Journal of Animal Ecology},
year = {2004},
volume = {73},
pages = {1168--1178},
number = {6},
publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
file={:prado:prado2004.pdf}

} @ARTICLE{yotoko2005,

author = {Yotoko, K.S.C. and Prado, P.I. and Russo, C.A.M. and Solferini, V.N.},
title = {Testing the trend towards specialization in herbivore-host plant
associations using a molecular phylogeny of Tomoplagia (Diptera:
Tephritidae)},
journal = {Molecular phylogenetics and evolution},
year = {2005},
volume = {35},
pages = {701--711},
number = {3},
publisher = {Elsevier},
file={:prado:yotoko2005.pdf}

} @ARTICLE{lewinsohn2006,

author = {Lewinsohn, T.M. and Prado, I. and Jordano, P. and Bascompte, J. and
Olesen, M.},
title = {Structure in plant-animal interaction assemblages},
journal = {Oikos},
year = {2006},
volume = {113},
pages = {174--184},
number = {1},
publisher = {Blackwell Publishing},
file={:prado:lewinsohn2006.pdf}

}

@article{pires2011,

  author = {Pires, Mathias M. AND Prado, Paulo I. AND Guimarães, Jr, Paulo R.},
  journal = {PLoS ONE},
  publisher = {Public Library of Science},
  title = {Do Food Web Models Reproduce the Structure of Mutualistic Networks?},
  year = {2011},
  month = {11},
  volume = {6},
  url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0027280},
  pages = {e27280},
  number = {11},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0027280}

}

@article{jorge2014integrated,

title={An integrated framework to improve the concept of resource specialisation},
author={Jorge, Leonardo R and Prado, Paulo I and Almeida-Neto, M{\'a}rio and Lewinsohn, Thomas M},
journal={Ecology letters},
volume={17},
number={11},
pages={1341--1350},
year={2014},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}

}

</bibtex>

On many occasions I could use my skills in analysis and ecological theory to applied research, especially in conservation biology.

Currently these issues are not my main line of investigation, although I keep some ongoing collaborations.

<bibtex> @BOOK{,

title = {Biodiversidade brasileira: síntese do estado atual do conhecimento},
publisher = {Editora Contexto},
year = {2002},
author = {Lewinsohn, T.M. and Prado, P.I.},
address = {São Paulo},
owner = {paulo},
timestamp = {2010.08.14},
url={http://www.editoracontexto.com.br/produtos.asp?cod=195}

} @ARTICLE{lewinsohn2005,

author = {Lewinsohn, T.M. and Freitas, A.V.L. and Prado, P.I.},
title = {Conservation of terrestrial invertebrates and their habitats in Brazil},
journal = {Conservation Biology},
year = {2005},
volume = {19},
pages = {640--645},
number = {3},
publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
file={:prado:lewinsohn2005b.pdf}

}

@ARTICLE{becker2007,

author = {Becker, C.G. and Fonseca, C.R. and Haddad, C.F.B. and Batista, R.F.
and Prado, P.I.},
title = {Habitat split and the global decline of amphibians},
journal = {Science},
year = {2007},
volume = {318},
pages = {1775},
number = {5857},
publisher = {AAAS},
file={:prado:becker2007.pdf}

} @ARTICLE{ribeiro2008,

author = {Ribeiro, D.B. and Prado, P.I. and Brown Jr, K.S. and Freitas, A.V.L.},
title = {Additive partitioning of butterfly diversity in a fragmented landscape:
importance of scale and implications for conservation},
journal = {Diversity and Distributions},
year = {2008},
volume = {14},
pages = {961--968},
number = {6},
publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons},
file={:prado:ribeiro2008.pdf}

}

@article{laporta2013biodiversity,

title={Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests},
author={Laporta, Gabriel Zorello and Prado, Knegt Lopezde and Kraenkel, Roberto Andr{\'e} and Coutinho, Renato Mendes and Sallum, Maria AniceMureb},
journal={PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
volume={7},
number={3},
year={2013},
publisher={Public Library of Science}

}

</bibtex>

In collaboration with many colleagues, I created and teach the courses at the Graduate Studies Program in Ecology at USP

• Statistic Models in Ecology and Resource Management

• Introduction to the R language for ecologists

• Community Ecology

Also at USP, I'm one of the teachers who coordinate our Field Course for graduate students, and the undergraduate course of Population and community ecology of plants.

A comprehensive list courses I teach is in the page of teaching acitivities.

Graduate work already completed. For work in progress, please see the pages of current students.

<bibtex> @PHDTHESIS{Aguiar2003,

author = {Aguiar, S},
title = {Diversidade de Asteraceae e de insetos associados e padrões de uso
de hospedeiro por Tephritidae (Diptera) em diferentes componentes
da paisagem do Estado de São Paulo},
school = {Universidade Estadual de Campinas},
year = {2003},
address = {Unicamp, Campinas (Co-advisor)},
owner = {paulo},
timestamp = {2010.08.15},
url = {http://libdigi.unicamp.br/document/?code=vtls000317691}

} @MASTERSTHESIS{Becker2007,

author = {Becker, C. G.},
title = {Desconexão de habitats e o declinio global dos anfibios},
school = {Universidade Estadual de Campinas},
year = {2007},
address = {Unicamp, Campinas},
owner = {paulo},
timestamp = {2010.08.15},
url = {http://libdigi.unicamp.br/document/?code=vtls000414051}

} @MASTERSTHESIS{Torres2008,

author = {Torres, P. G.},
title = {Ocorrencia de cães domesticos (canis familiaris) em fragmentos de
mata atlantica em zona rural e urbana e sua relação com a ocupação
humana do entorno},
school = {Universidade Estadual de Campinas},
year = {2008},
address = {Unicamp, Campinas},
owner = {paulo},
timestamp = {2010.08.15},
url = {http://libdigi.unicamp.br/document/?code=vtls000438318}

} @MASTERSTHESIS{,

author = {Mello, T. F.},
title = {Estrutura da vegetação, cobertura florestal e preferências de uso
da paisagem associadas a vertentes: as quase-florestas de São Luiz
do Paraitinga},
year = {2010},
school={Universidade de São Paulo},
address = {USP, São Paulo},
owner = {paulo},
timestamp = {2010.08.15},
url = {http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/41/41134/tde-19042010-105930/}

} @PHDTHESIS{Paise2010,

author = {Paise, G.},
title = {Efeitos da fragmentação de habitat sobre a comunidade de pequenos
mamíferos de Mata Atlântica no Estado de São Paulo},
school = {Universidade Estadual de Campinas},
year = {2010},
address = {Unicamp, Campinas},
owner = {paulo},
timestamp = {2010.08.15},
url={http://cutter.unicamp.br/document/?did=42431}

}

@MASTERSTHESIS{mandai2010,

author = {Mandai, C. Y.},
title = {Aplicação de modelos teóricos de distribuição de abundância das espécies na avaliação de efeitos de fragmentação sobre as comunidades de aves da Mata Atlântica},
year = {2010},
school={Universidade de São Paulo},
address = {USP, São Paulo},
owner = {paulo},
timestamp = {2010.08.15},
url={http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/41/41134/tde-15122010-164250/pt-br.php}

}

@MASTERSTHESIS{rodrigues2011,

author = {Rodrigues, R. C.},
title = {Uso de modelos de distribuição de abundância na análise da relação entre diversidade de aves e variáveis ambientais e antrópicas},
year = {2011},
school={Universidade de São Paulo},
address = {USP, São Paulo},

url={http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/41/41134/tde-20012012-160435/pt-br.php} }

@PHDTHESIS{Laporta2012,

author = {Laporta, G. Z.},
title = {Biodiversidade de Culicidae e sua interação com arboviroses e malária na Mata Atlântica},
school = {Faculdade de Saúde Pública, Universidade de São Paulo (Co-advisor)},
year = {2012},
address = {USP, São Paulo},
url={http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/6/6132/tde-07052012-094752/pt-br.php}

}

@PHDTHESIS{Lima2013,

author = {Lima, R. A. F.},
title = {Ajuste e seleção de modelos na descrição de comunidades arbóreas : estrutura, diversidade e padrões espaciais},
school = {Universidade de São Paulo},
year = {2013},
address = {USP, São Paulo},
url={http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/41/41134/tde-22102013-150112/en.php}

}

</bibtex>

Soon in this site. Meanwhile you can check my extended CV in the Lattes Database kept by the Brazilian Research Council ( CNPq ), my profile at Mendeley or at Google Scholar.

<box round right 45%>

</box>

<box round left 45%|Postal Address >

Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências – USP

Rua do Matão Travessa 14, nº 321,

São Paulo, SP, Brasil,

CEP 05508-090 </box>

<box round left 45%| Office>

Ecology Dept.

Ernst Markus Building, Office 341B

Phone: +55 11 30917597

</box>

<box round right 45%> </box>